Six Degrees: Our Future on a Hotter Planet

There are already plenty of good, in-depth reviews that give you an indication of what you'll be reading if you get this book, so I won't duplicate. All I will say is that this book is well-written, easy to read, and chock full of references to studies and other supporting documentation for what the author discusses. There are literally pages and pages of citations at the back of the book so you can go check out the author's sources for yourself. If you read this book and STILL somehow find a way to deny that climate change is real, is happening right now, and will continue to happen for at least another ~100 years....there's just no help for you. I'd already read "Under a Green Sky" and other books that give a flavor of what now awaits us as a result of our having carelessly overloaded the planet with greenhouse gases. This book cited some of the same material, but also PLENTY of other research and studies that I hadn't come across yet. It is depressing to read this book, as some of the damage has already happened and can NEVER be reversed. I nearly cried reading the sparse (maybe ten sentences) description of how one species - the golden tree frog, in South America - was determined to be extinct. One single little male frog, all alone, showing up at the mating grounds for a couple of years in a row, giving out his mating call....but the only one there to know it was a scientist who had been studying the frogs. Then, the next year...nothing. The last little male frog didn't come to the mating grounds....nor was he there the next year, or the next....and it was concluded that the entire species was now extinct. All told in just a few sentences, unemotionally...but even sadder as a result. This is what our brutal ignorance is doing: murdering species one after the other, left and right...with only one, or a few, scientists even present at the "funeral". If that doesn't disgust you and make you unhappy with "politics as usual', and the human race in general, I doubt anything will - and reading this book won't change a thing in your mind. I applaud the author for writing this. I hope that his hopes for his daughter come true, that somehow things can be changed quickly enough to avoid the future predicted. That the book is depressing to read is NOT the author's fault - the topic itself is depressing. This book, however, takes the mature attitude that until and unless we, as a race, both KNOW and ADMIT what we are facing, nothing can be done. This is his attempt to bring light to the shadows created by opportunistic politicians and greed-meisters who think only of the next three months (or year at most).

Overall, this is an excellent book which describes the most likely effects of warming of planet earth in six scenarios, warming between 1 and 6 degrees in one degree increments, based upon the scientific literature. (A collection of notes at the end of the book gives references to scientific articles.) There is also a short chapter describing policies for mitigation of climate change. The description of the six scenarios is consistent with what I’ve read from other sources. I agree that climate change is the most serious problem facing the species homo sapiens. According to the Fifth Assessment Report of the IPCC written in 2015, “projections suggest an increase in global mean temperature in 2100 of 3.7 to 4.8 °C, relative to pre-industrial levels.” But the report also suggests there is considerable uncertainty and the full range might be from 2.5 to 7.8 degrees Centigrade. What primarily drives climate change is release of carbon dioxide (and other greenhouse gases) into the atmosphere by humans using fossil fuels. However, as the author describes, there are various tipping points at which natural processes might be unleashed that accelerate global warming and make it less possible for humans to control climate change. These include “carbon cycle feedbacks” as heated soils in the tropics release additional carbon into the atmosphere, melting of the Arctic ice cap which further heats the planet due to the lower reflectivity of water as opposed to ice, and melting of the permafrost in the Arctic tundra which can release methane. These effects are nonlinear and it is hard to predict how they might interact. That is one of the reasons for the range in predictions of the various models. The suggested remedies in the last chapter are mostly already being pursued. These include the development of solar and wind energy, high efficiency standards for autos, and efforts to live closer to nature and use less energy. On the other hand, the author doesn't discuss the impact of population growth on global warming, nor the possibility that lower population growth might mitigate the suffering of people who leave the uninhabitable equatorial regions as the earth warms, and seek entry into the more temperate parts of the world. The population of Africa is slated to double again by 2050. In his discussion of three degrees, the author describes the effect of a warming climate on Botswana. At present Botswana is largely the Kalahari desert, although the northeastern part is the Okavango Delta which gets seasonal rain, and native people can live in this region in close contact with nature. But as the world warms, Botswana and large parts of surrounding countries will become drier, the region will turn to sand dunes, and the inhabitants will likely starve. Missionaries went to Africa and convinced many of the natives that birth control was sinful and abortion is downright murder. Wouldn’t it make sense to project the opposite message, that women should plan their family size, and large families lead to disaster in an overpopulated world? This might make it easier for Africans to survive the period of warming, which will gradually lower the carrying capacity of earth, causing deaths in the hundreds of millions. Restricting to just the US, which has a population growth of .7% per year, wouldn’t a limitation of growth to zero percent result in lower emissions in the long run because of the lower number of people using energy? That’s a small change, but every bit helps. The author equivocates when it comes to nuclear energy. But the issue here is safety, and I believe we should the option open by supporting research in new designs. This can speed up the replacement of oil and gas. All these issues need to be discussed in a public forum. That discussion is essential because we the public cannot make rational decisions unless they have considered all options for mitigation.

Six Degrees does a great job at simply laying out what each degree of warming will do to our planet, and therefore to us. Mark Lynas is able to explain the effects of warming in an authoritative way because it's based on what the earth has already done in the past, with a warmer climate at various times eons ago. Although many think a warmer planet may not be a bad thing (too many cold winters in Buffalo?), this book is able to show that unless you are some exotic form of tropical algae, a warming world would be disastrous for you and human civilization. The author describes why the hotter planet would be a bad thing. I know a lot of climate change skeptics correctly point out that in the past, the planet was a lot hotter than it is now, so what's the big deal? The reason why global warming is bad is because our entire ability to grow food has evolved only in the past 10,000 years - the most stable climate the planet has seen in millions of years, and even very small temperature increases of just 2, 3, or 4 degrees (Celsius) would wreak absolute havoc on our ability to grow enough food to feed the world. Imagine the conflicts of a modern Somalia magnified to every country in the world - not a pleasant thought. The author probably does a better job of describing what even small temperature increases would do to us - wreaking havoc on food production, rising sea levels, etc., than actually making the case that humans are definitely creating a warmer world through all our fossil fuel combustion (showing that the warming is not part of a natural cycle). For more basic science on how we are warming the planet, I'd recommend The Discovery of Global Warming by Spencer Weart. If this book doesn't scare you into taking global warming seriously, probably nothing will. In some ways, I'm not that happy about reading this book, because it points me to the frightening conclusion that given the inevitable time lag between knowing and acting, our human race is in for some very unpleasant times ahead for the next few hundred years; all because we did nothing to slow down global warming. However, it's better to know the truth than believe a big lie, at least we can mitigate some of the worst changes if we have the political and personal will to do so, which will give us more time to adapt to a hotter, drier world with less arable growing land, and flooded low coastal areas.

Sobering. Full of evidence and very readable. This book is the best explanation I've found about what climate change means. The author lets the evidence and projections speak for themselves, and they are alarming. Everyone should read this book. Why is this information not being yelled from the housetops and part of every politician's speech? Other reviewers have criticized this book because the author is a journalist, not a scientist. Well, the scientists so far have done a poor job of explaining to the rest of us what climate change means. Al Gore's film The Inconvenient Truth also fell short. This author has obviously done extensive research and synthesized it for all of us. That is what journalists do. He deserves praise for this accomplishment. From this and other books I've read, it's apparent that climate change is now inevitable. The only question is how fast we want it to get very bad. Far from declining, world C02 emissions continue to rise exponentially. Even the amount of CO2 emitted so far is enough to eventually melt Greenland and raise sea levels tens of feet, as well as cause major storms and droughts, and decimate much of life in the oceans and on land. Critical tipping points are near, such as melting permafrost and releasing tons more methane. There is a film version of this book by National Geographic, for those who want an easy overview. Another good book on the topic is The Climate Crisis: An Introductory Guide to Climate Change . After the evidence in this book has got you depressed, you can recover by checking out this more hopeful perspective, a PBS NOVA show describing possible solutions: Nova: Power Surge: Are We Finally on the Brink of a Clean Energy Revolution? .

Much better option that purchasing from the college bookstore, Exact same book, but well, a better decision.

In six chapters, the author Mark Lynas described the effects on planet due to a rise of global temperature by 1 degree, 2 degree …….up to 6 degree Celsius. He summarized the results of scientific research conducted by scientists that made this book very interesting. This book used IPCC’s landmark 1.4 degree to 5.8 degree Celsius temperature range. The good thing about this book is it made suggestions to save the planet. By 1 degree Celsius rise, Arctic ice is affected and ocean area is increased. Rise by 2 degree Celsius will trigger sea level rise. Amazonian rain forest basin will dry out completely by the rise of 3 degree Celsius global temperature. Huge methane release by 4 degree Celsius global temperature rise will take the carbon emission level to an extreme level. The earth will change by the rise of 5 degree Celsius global temperature and we will see an altered geography. Climate changes beyond the tipping point. Finally, by 6 degree Celsius rise, the future of world is uncertain. Species may survive, but there is no guarantee. Mark Lynas talks about saving the planet by implementing seven wedges. Each wedge represents a reduction of 1 billion tons of C by 2055. The goal is to get rid of coal use and fossil fuel burning. This is an excellent book as it talks about the whole world: Asia, Sub-Continent, Africa, Europe, America, Australia, Antarctica and other places. You will not require too much prior knowledge to understand the contents of the book. The author frequently refers back to what happened in the past when the temperature reached in those levels. The future warm world is very articulately represented. I want to make few criticisms. The book does not contain a single figure or table. The author tried to dump maximum amount of information and might look scary. This can be a very good text book if these issues are tackled. I strongly recommend this book for Water Resources Engineering. It has a whole bunch of information on groundwater, droughts, floods and climate.

I have read and studied a great deal about the climate crisis but this book left me reeling. Its structure, taking us step by step into a hotter planet, is hard to put down but is also dreadfully depressing. If Mr. Lynas is correct, and all he's doing here is brilliantly assembling the latest scientific research on the subject, then the 21st century may be the last for humanity, and for most other life forms as well. Try as I might, I find it hard to refute this terrifying conclusion. Scientists the world over are ringing alarm bells and screaming to be heard above the din. This book goes a long way towards clearly articulating the prevailing view among climate scientists that this issue needs to be priority number one for the entire planet if we are to have any hope of survival. Sadly, it's just one book and is unlikely to spark the kind of revolutionary thinking that will be necessary to tackle the problem. One rather annoying thing about the end of the book is its dismissal of nuclear power as a technological solution. If the situation is as dire as Mr. Lyans clearly believes, why not throw everything at it, including the most powerful technology known to man? Without a massive scaling up of nuclear power, along with solar, wind, conservation and the rest, I can't see how we have any hope of averting a disaster. Yet Mr. Lyans seems willing to set it aside with very little thought to the matter. It is telling that since this book was published he has now become an active and vocal proponent of nuclear power. It's just a great shame this change of heart was not part of his book. Like so many books (and movies) about the climate crisis it's long on instilling fear but offers next to nothing in terms of a solution. The result for most readers, I fear, will be to try to put this nightmarish vision of a looming catastrophe out of their minds rather than motivating them to become engaged in concrete solutions. Not for the faint of heart (I won't let my wife read it and won't speak about its conclusions to my kids). Yes, it's that scary!

This is a 2007 (2008 in USA) book about global warming. It summarizes the results from scientific papers on climate change, and it uses successive chapters to describe the world's climate at 1°C, 2°C, on up to 6°C rise of average temperatures. The effects are compared to paleoclimatic studies, with six degrees of warming compared back to the Cretaceous geologic period. Since this book is already ten years old it's interesting to compare its predictions to what has actually happened since it was published. This book predicted that we would reach 400 ppm of atmospheric CO2 by year 2015. According to this website, 401.51 ppm was reached in 2015. The 2008 worldwide recession reduced CO2 emissions, so I was hopeful that it may have delayed reaching the 400 ppm mark. These GRAPHS show that total emissions of CO2 into the atmosphere actually decreased in 2009. (This is one of the few good things about a recession.) But the resulting rate of increase to atmospheric CO2 concentrations as shown on this GRAPH is barely detectible. This book indicates that if we're able to stop the rise in CO2 at 400 ppm we are still doomed to a probable increase in average world temperature rise of 2°C which will result in increased severity of to storms in the weather, increased pH in oceans that will cause bleaching of coral reefs, and moderate rise in ocean levels. These things are already happening. However, if CO2 concentrations rise to 450 ppm (3°C average temperature increase) we will probably pass the threshold for carbon cycle feedback. Carbon cycle feedback refers to various biochemical reactions that respond to rising temperatures in a manner that causes still more increased CO2 discharge to the atmosphere. If the CO2 concentrations continue to increase to 550 ppm it will probably result in an increase of 4°C to average world temperatures which will probably pass the threshold for Siberian methane feedback. Siberian methane feedback refers to the expected release of methane caused by thawing of the permafrost in the arctic regions which will allow initiation of the organic decomposition of organic material previously held in a frozen state. This causes organic carbon to be converted into atmospheric CO2. At some point the warming of ocean temperatures may cause the release of methane hydrate (a greenhouse gas) that is currently trapped at the bottom of the ocean under the load of high water pressure. If the CO2 concentrations continue to increase to 650 ppm it will probably result in an increase of 5°C. It will be the first time the earth has been that warm since the Pliocene geologic period 5 to 3 million years ago. That's the era of when the hominid fossil "Lucy" was living. The oceans will have risen sufficiently in this world to dramatically change the shape of the exposed land mass. If CO2 concentration reach 800 ppm the earth's temperature will reach the 6°C rise threshold which will be the highest temperatures since the Cretaceous geologic period 145 to 66 million years ago. This was the time when dinosaurs dominated, the only mammals were small creatures, and there were certainly no humans alive at the time. This book suggests that humans are clever enough to probably survive in a world of 6°C rise, but the earth would almost certainly not be able to support today's population. Of course there are plenty of uncertainties in these predictions, and climate change deniers like to emphasize this point. But uncertainty could go the other way, and conditions could be worse than predicted. The reason climate change deniers can sound believable is because there is a long lag time in these changes. If CO2 concentrations stopped at today's levels the earth's temperatures would continue to rise and the ocean levels would continue to rise for 30 to 50 years. Since this book was published ten years ago some of the predicted correlation between temperatures and CO2 may today be slightly different based on more advanced modeling. But it's my understanding that the general order of magnitude of expected changes are much the same. Unfortunately, climate change has become a political issue with conservatives generally being skeptical of climate science and liberals being advocates of it. A NYT article (April 27, 2017) indicates that there is an organized effort underway to send an anti-climate change booklet to virtually every science educator in the USA. Unfortunately, a recent survey indicates that some science teachers show signs of being influenced by this misinformation. The following excerpt is taken from the NYT article. "A survey of 1,500 American science teachers published last year in the journal Science found 30 percent of those surveyed said they emphasized in their classes that recent global warming “is likely due to natural causes.” Less than half also correctly identified the degree of consensus among climate scientists that human activities are the primary cause of global warming." It's difficult to imagine any credentialed science teacher being influenced by this propaganda. All teachers I know would recognize it as politically motivated misinformation.

‘Climate Change is the canvas on which the history of the 21st century will be painted’ - Introduction, Page 22 A wealth of knowledge in this book. Reading this book is like gazing into the future. Through its six chapters, the author describes changes to the global climate, which are likely to occur, as the planet warms up degree by degree from one degree to six degrees over this century. Information presented in the book has been distilled from scientific literature on the subject; literature that is mostly read by specialists and not by the layman. The conclusion drawn is that, although the planet has seen warm periods before since life began, the present warming is occurring at a rate that most plants and animals will be unable to adapt fast enough and face extinction. Further, climate change will cause mass migration of humans, which in turn will lead to massive social unrest and turmoil. With a hostile climate, zones fit for human habitation will continuously shrink towards the poles as we head towards a six degrees world. The world as we have known it will entirely change. In sum, the book is a dire warning, alarming and a must read.

I heard Mark Lynas speak at the 4degrees international climate conference at Oxford University in 2009. In this book he describes how our collective greed as a species and disconnectedness from the natural world has led us down a path that likely will, unless we come to grips with what we are doing lead to the extermination of most if not all life on earth perhaps forever. Yet he also demonstrates that we have it within our power to avoid this and to pass on our own indescribably privileged inheritance to future human beings and other species. Can we seriously regard as acceptable the carnage of flying fox colonies from heat waves, or the inevitable death of the Great Barrier Reef, generated by our self indulgent fossil fuel fed lifestyles? We seem to be locked in this way of thinking now but we can not only imagine things being different from this we can make them so. A really good read as well as a really confronting one.

This book is a timely reminder that climate change is not "going away". Indeed, according to increasingly well-grounded scientific evidence it remains the greatest threat that humanity has ever faced. The power to mitigate it is also in the hands of humanity - but we risk to miss the opportunity. Writing as a committed Christians and a Pastor, I found it extremely helpful - and disturbing in its implications. "Six degrees" takes its title from the range of global warming potentially in train according to the UN's IPCC (International Panel on Climate Change), for the year 2100. That is, from 1 to 6 degrees centigrade. Because of the greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, that we have already generated by burning fossil fuel over the last 200 years, the process is already well underway, while ongoing carbon emissions threaten to accelerate the process. Furthermore, there are some "non-linearities" that could lead to a much greater likelihood of a bad outcome. For example, there is the risk of massive loss of vegetation if the Amazon basin becomes arid, that would reduce the scope for nature to absorb excess carbon; there is the unknown quantity of carbon gases that may be released as the "permafrost" in Siberia and Canada melts; and there are vast quantities of methane hydrates under the ocean that could release methane at a certain ocean temperature. The evidence for climate change and its effects are very strong. Not just because sceintific models fit the recent past very well, but because geological evidence shows the impact of climate changes in prehistory, and the massive disruption to life that they caused. Only, in those cases nature had the advantage that events of warming took place over thousands of years, enabling many species of plant and animal to "head for the poles" gradually and continue to survive. Nature will have much less scope to do this in the current episode that is likely to have a major impact over a mere 100 years. Mass extinctions are in prospect even at low levels of warming, especially as coral reefs are highly vulnerable to slight ocean warming, and polar bears and other Arctic creatures will not survive loss of ice cover. But much greater losses are likely at higher temperature rises, not least because mankind has decimated habitats already. Mankind will not emerge unscathed. At low temperature rises, there are major risks to all coastal cities and numerous islands such as the Maldives will vanish. But if temperature rise is greater, a growing band of desert extending up into Europe and down to Southern Africa can be envisaged. It is impossible that food production and living space could be maintained for the current population, even if tundra could be soon made into cropland. Violence and war will likely accompany such a scramble for survival. Those who are poor will suffer most at all levels of warming - and are already doing so - as the charity Tear Fund rightly remind us (see [...]). So as these are well established facts, what is a Christian perspective? Well, the "conservative right" in the US seems to want to deny the process, clearly in the vested interest of oil and coal producers but perhaps also with a twisted view of Revelation "if God is going to renew the planet, what does it matter if we wreck the old one"? But I believe our call is to "care for the garden" (Genesis 2:15), especially as the coming of the followers of Jesus is supposed to begin creation's renewal (Romans 8:21), in light of dire warnings of judgement for those who disregard the suffering of the poor (such as Proverbs 21:13) and more generally that in the end-times God will "destroy those who destroy the earth" (Revelation 11:18). Care for the environment needs to be a core Christian concern. The charity A Rocha (see [...]) works well in this area but what a difference it would make if the around 1.8 billion Christians globally sought to minimise their "carbon footprint", and put pressure on governments to enact appropriate policies!

Consequences of climatic change can almost be grasped - the hotter it becomes, the more nightmarish the prospects are for earth. Based on solid science and computer models on climatic change, it is made clear that earth will/may become a very uncomftable planet for us and even more for the generations to come if we do not change into a sustainable way of live soon. It has changed the way I think about climatic change.

I coud'nt stop reading this book. Although this is written more than ten years ago, many of his predictions and ideas are still true to today's circumstances.